The night before yesterday, while browsing the news, I noticed that the US Treasury Secretary was once again signaling a rate cut, and the market reacted incredibly quickly — the group instantly exploded. Some excitedly shouted "It's taking off," while others started lamenting "It's over, it's over." After scrolling through the comments, I was reminded of an old topic: what liquidity easing means for crypto assets.

Simply put, once a rate cut cycle begins, money becomes "cheaper." Bank interest rates decline, and idle funds held by institutions and retail investors have nowhere to go. At this point, those seeking high returns naturally look for places with greater volatility and higher potential — the cryptocurrency market is a typical sink for such funds. Looking back at history, during the last rate cut cycle, Bitcoin soared from a few thousand dollars to over sixty thousand, changing the entire market narrative. Several friends I know who previously looked down on this industry later quietly asked me how to get in, and some even asked if they could build positions with me.

But honestly, this time I really want to pour cold water on it. The current environment is completely different from before. Although inflation has eased somewhat, the economic recovery is still shaky and lacks a clear direction. If the central bank cuts rates too aggressively, it could easily inflate an asset bubble. If subsequent economic data fail to meet expectations, policy attitudes will quickly reverse to tighten — and at that point, those who jumped in following the trend are often trapped.

So, the most I’ve been discussing with people in the circle lately is this: don’t go all-in just because you’re excited. Before real opportunities arrive, the smartest approach is actually to "lie in wait" — calmly select the coins and projects you believe in, plan your position management in advance, and then deploy small amounts in batches. Follow the market rhythm, rather than being led around by every piece of news.

I’ve seen too many people lose money in this market, and it’s often not because of poor skills or slow information access, but because they were defeated by emotions. They impulsively buy on good news, panic at dips, and swing between greed and fear all day. I myself have suffered this many times in earlier years — losing heavily in the first three years — and only later did I gradually learn to use strict strategies and disciplined execution to control my emotions. Looking back now, having a plan is more important than predictions, and discipline is more reliable than luck.