#比特币价格预测 Seeing Arthur Hayes again bullish on Bitcoin returning to $124,000, I need to calm down first. I've heard this "Federal Reserve QE + liquidity release" logic too many times; every time it sounds convincing, but the key point is—he transferred $1.5 million worth of ETH to Galaxy Digital yesterday, and this detail is enough to tell the story.

Don’t be blinded by the predicted numbers. Having been in this market for a long time, my biggest lesson is: when influencers are most enthusiastic about going long, it’s often the time they quietly reduce their positions. The ranges of 80,000 to 100,000, or the figures like 124,000 and 200,000 sound tempting, but those who truly make money never rely on predictions—they rely on risk management.

The Federal Reserve’s RMP policy can indeed increase liquidity; this fundamental aspect is sound. But the problem is, in such a loose environment, retail investors are most easily driven by emotions to chase highs. History will repeat itself—big institutions pre-position on news triggers, retail FOMO in to buy the top, and end up trapped at high levels.

My advice is simple: if you haven’t entered the market yet, wait and see if the price can break below support; if you already hold positions, be even more cautious. Don’t get blinded by target prices like "200 million dollars." To survive long on-chain, it’s not about chasing rallies, but knowing when to run.