The suspense over the Federal Reserve Chair nomination remains unresolved, and predictive market data reveals the latest game of chess.

【BiTu】The battle for the Federal Reserve Chair candidate is becoming increasingly deadlocked. This month, the United States is expected to announce Trump’s new appointment, with the two leading candidates now tied in the prediction markets.

Polymarket’s data is clear—Haskett and Wosh both have a 39% chance of being nominated. Interestingly, over the past week, Wosh’s support has surged by 8 percentage points, while Haskett’s has fallen by 3 percentage points. What does this contrast reflect? It indicates that the market is re-evaluating the chances of these two candidates.

For trading markets, who takes the position will directly influence the Federal Reserve’s policy direction, thereby impacting the entire asset allocation. The volatility in prediction markets precisely reflects the changing expectations of traders. This uncertainty itself is both an opportunity and a risk.