Many Wall Street analysts have recently been shouting about one thing — the US unemployment rate could surge to 6%, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to 2.25%. This is not alarmist talk.

Based on JOLTS data and employment indicators from the Business Confederation, the labor market is indeed heading downhill. It was still "cooling down" the year before last, but now it has directly "shrunk." At the start of 2025, major layoffs are happening, and job openings are shrinking sharply. Interestingly, some white-collar workers have been laid off, but severance packages have masked the true employment pressure, and the data has not fully exploded yet.

GDP growth is somewhat虚虚 — stagnant income and weak consumption are the real truths. The wealth gap is becoming more and more apparent. The AI wave impact, tightening immigration policies, and government agency downsizing are hitting the job market simultaneously, making it very fragile. There are divisions within the Federal Reserve, and the White House is also applying pressure. Under this situation, the independence of the Federal Reserve is a cause for concern.

By 2026, if the "silent recession" continues, will the Fed stick to its inflation stance or loosen the reins for easing? This suspense is crucial for risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The market is holding its breath.