#美联储降息预期升温 # How to Play Gold in the Short Term? Core Logic Breakdown

The recent situation in Venezuela has indeed sparked a surge in safe-haven demand, pushing gold past 4400. The underlying logic looking forward is quite clear: the Federal Reserve is likely to loosen policy around 2026 (with institutions generally predicting 2-4 rate cuts), while the US dollar's global appeal is waning, and central banks worldwide are still continuously accumulating gold. These factors provide the confidence for gold to move upward.

However, there are some recent concerns. During the week of January 8-14, Bloomberg Commodity Index will be reweighted, which may passively trigger a 3% sell-off in gold. Coupled with year-end profit-taking and increased margin requirements, volatility could intensify at any moment.

**How to operate? Never chase highs.** If gold retraces and stabilizes around 4320-4250, that’s the real entry point. The range of 4450-4550 faces significant short-term resistance, making it difficult to break through in one go.

Keep a close eye on risks: the US non-farm payroll data on January 9 could directly change expectations for rate cuts, potentially causing a big wave. It’s recommended to set stop-losses for long positions below 4320-4250—don’t be soft-hearted.

*Disclaimer: This is for market opinion discussion only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading involves risks.*