Is the unemployment rate really about to break 6%? Wall Street veteran Rosenberg recently made a bold move: the Federal Reserve might be forced to cut interest rates to 2.25%.

His reasoning is actually quite solid. Comparing JOLTS data and the employment indicators from the Business Confederation, the labor market has already shifted from "cooling" to "shrinking." In 2025, widespread layoffs and a sharp decline in hiring demand have caused workers' job search confidence to drop to the lowest post-pandemic level.

The trouble is that many white-collar workers have been misled by severance packages, and the true unemployment pressure has not yet fully surfaced. On the surface, GDP is still growing, but income has stagnated, consumption is weak, and the wealth gap is widening—simply put, the rich are getting richer, while ordinary people's lives are becoming tighter.

AI automation, immigration policy adjustments, and government staffing cuts are hitting simultaneously, making the job market as fragile as paper. Goldman Sachs also issued a warning that AI will exacerbate structural unemployment.

The current suspense is: will the Federal Reserve continue to stick to its inflation target, or will it adopt aggressive easing in 2026? If a "silent recession" becomes reality, how will the market react? Can cryptocurrencies serve as a hedge? All these questions are worth paying attention to.