Unemployment pressure is mounting beneath the surface. Can the federal funds rate drop to 2.25%?

Economist Rosenberg recently issued a warning: the US unemployment rate could surpass 6%, forcing the Federal Reserve to significantly cut interest rates. By comparing JOLTS job openings data with employment indicators from the Chamber of Commerce, he uncovered clues—rather than a slow cooling, the labor market is accelerating its contraction.

Since 2025, layoffs have become frequent, hiring demand has plummeted, and worker confidence has hit a post-pandemic low. But this is not the full picture. Behind the wave of white-collar resignations lies severance agreements, and the true employment crisis has not yet fully surfaced.

GDP data looks decent, but signs of stagnant income and weak consumption are becoming increasingly evident. Wealth disparity is intensifying. AI automation, immigration policy adjustments, and government agency downsizing—these three forces are simultaneously squeezing the job market, with a level of fragility beyond expectations.

There are disagreements within the Federal Reserve, and its policy independence is also being questioned. Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the AI wave could trigger structural unemployment issues. If the economy continues to gently slow in 2026, will the Fed stick to price stability or shift to unconventional easing? This uncertainty will directly influence the direction of crypto assets. The global markets are waiting for this answer.