#数字资产动态追踪 The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates five times in a row this year, which presents a complex situation for Bitcoin.

Historically, during rate-cutting cycles, the liquidity released tends to suppress the yields of traditional assets. What does this mean? It means the opportunity cost of holding $BTC decreases. Coupled with the expectation of a weakening dollar, capital is motivated to shift into cryptocurrencies. The influx of institutional investors, along with the maturity of the spot ETF market, will further amplify this effect. It all sounds like good news.

But there's a trap to watch out for—"recessionary rate cuts."

If large-scale unemployment truly occurs, triggering fears of an economic recession, Bitcoin may come under pressure along with other risk assets. The panic sell-off scene of early 2020 could repeat. Currently, Bitcoin is closely tied to macro liquidity, and its movement depends on the tug-of-war between two forces: one is the speed and intensity of rate cuts, and the other is the depth of economic downturn.

If policies are quickly loosened and the economy achieves a soft landing, the safe-haven properties and appreciation logic of "digital gold" can be fully realized. But if the recession exceeds expectations, short-term volatility could be intense. Nevertheless, as long as the monetary environment remains accommodative, Bitcoin remains favorable in the medium to long term.

$BTC