#Polymarket预测市场 Seeing the fluctuations in the probability of the Federal Reserve Chair candidate on Polymarket, I thought of a common mistake that many investor friends make.

Prediction markets can indeed reflect the market's consensus probability of future events, but this "probability" itself is full of uncertainty. Waller reports 14% after the interview, Wosh 21%, Hasset 56%... These numbers seem precise, but in reality, each major news event can cause sharp fluctuations. I've seen too many people be confused by this "quantified" probability, treating predictions as certainty, only to suffer heavy losses amid volatility.

This type of event-driven trading is most likely to trigger gambler's psychology—because when information feels sufficient and data clear, it's easy to overestimate one's judgment ability. But honestly, the variables involved in policy candidate selection are too complex for anyone to predict accurately.

My advice is, if you want to pay attention to such information, treat it as a reference background for long-term asset allocation rather than a short-term trading signal. Federal Reserve policies do influence market direction, but their impact is gradual and relatively stable, so there's no need to frequently adjust positions. Maintain a solid asset structure, review periodically rather than trade frequently—this way, no matter who ultimately takes office, your investment system can withstand the test.