The New Year has just passed, and the global financial markets are still in post-holiday adjustment, but turbulence in the Caribbean region suddenly breaks the calm. On the early morning of January 3rd, local time, the United States took military action against Venezuela, and the situation rapidly escalated. The US announced that it has taken control of the Venezuelan president and his spouse, while Venezuela declared a nationwide state of emergency and called on armed forces to respond. This conflict has once again tightened market nerves.

This was not sudden. Over the past few months, the US government has repeatedly pressured the current regime—deploying additional troops, targeting smuggling fleets, and listing them as terrorist organizations. However, the scale and speed of this direct military action still came as a surprise, with rumors that the US military may launch a second round of strikes. There is also unrest within the US, with voices criticizing this as an "risky decision," reflecting the high controversy surrounding the action itself.

The oil market is the first to be affected. Venezuela possesses the world's largest proven oil reserves, and this status directly influences its geopolitical conflicts on energy markets. Currently under US sanctions, Venezuela's oil production has shrunk to about 900,000 barrels per day. If the military conflict affects oil fields, ports, or transportation routes, supply will tighten immediately, causing international oil prices to soar, especially for heavy crude, which is more likely to become a safe-haven asset.

But what the market is truly concerned about are deeper changes. If the regime truly changes and the new government lifts sanctions on Venezuela, the massive production capacity will be re-released—this long-term logical concern is enough to shake the entire oil market outlook. In the short term, panic may push oil prices higher, but in the long term, a sharp decline could be possible. This dual-sided risk is causing traders and analysts to hesitate.