What Is an Information Market and How Is It Different From a Prediction Market

Information markets cover a broad range of systems that price and trade signals, attention, and knowledge, while prediction markets represent the most financially mature and clearly resolved subset of this category.

Prediction markets dominate information markets today because they align incentives with accuracy, use real capital for validation, and resolve outcomes against objective real world events.

The Kaito Information Market Top 5 shows that regulatory clarity, faster settlement cycles, and new integrations such as AI agents and media distribution are shaping the next phase of prediction market growth.

READING THE KAITO INFORMATION MARKET TOP 5

Over the past year, prediction markets have quietly moved back to the center of the crypto conversation.

From elections and macro data to sports outcomes and onchain narratives, more capital is choosing to express conviction through markets rather than opinions. Instead of posting forecasts on social media, traders are increasingly placing bets that settle against reality.

As this trend accelerates, a broader concept has started to gain traction: the information market.

With the launch of the Information Markets Mindshare Arena by Kaito, this abstract category has finally been made visible. By ranking projects based on attention and discussion share, Kaito offers a clear signal of where market focus is actually going.

One pattern stands out immediately. The projects dominating information markets today are almost all tied to prediction markets.

That raises several important questions. What exactly is an information market. How does it differ from a prediction market. Why do prediction markets dominate this category. And what do the top five projects on Kaito’s leaderboard really tell us about where this sector is heading.

INFORMATION MARKETS VS PREDICTION MARKETS

The relationship between information markets and prediction markets is close, but they are not the same thing.

At a high level, prediction markets are a subset of information markets. Information markets describe a much broader class of systems. They include any market mechanism where information, signals, judgment, or attention are produced, priced, and exchanged.

Prediction markets focus on one specific type of information: the outcome of a future event.

Information markets, by contrast, are concerned with a wider question. Who holds valuable information. How can that information be surfaced. And how can markets reward accuracy while filtering out noise.

Understanding this distinction helps explain why prediction markets have become the most visible and financially meaningful segment within information markets.

WHAT IS AN INFORMATION MARKET

An information market is any system that assigns economic value to information and allows that value to be discovered through market activity.

This can take many forms. Markets that buy and sell specific intelligence or signals. Bounty systems that reward the discovery of correct information. Attention markets that allocate value based on engagement and reach. Reputation and credibility systems that price trust over time.

In this framework, prediction markets, signal markets, attention markets, and research bounties all fall under the same umbrella.

For example, onchain intelligence platforms that allow users to trade wallet attribution data operate as information markets. The same applies to attention based platforms that reward content creation and narrative influence. Even though these systems look different on the surface, they are all trying to solve the same problem: how to identify and reward information that is more likely to be true.

WHAT IS A PREDICTION MARKET

Prediction markets narrow this concept to a very specific use case.

They allow participants to trade on the outcome of a clearly defined future event. Examples include election results, interest rate decisions, or the winner of a sports tournament.

Trades occur before the event takes place. Settlement happens after the outcome is objectively known.

The market price reflects the collective belief about probability. A contract priced at 0.82 implies that the market assigns an 82% chance to that outcome.

Mechanically, the logic is simple. If you believe an event will happen, you buy. If you believe it will not, you sell. Once the event is resolved, the contract settles at 1 if the outcome occurred and 0 if it did not.

What makes prediction markets powerful is incentive alignment. Unlike surveys or opinion polls, participants risk real capital. Accuracy is rewarded. Being wrong is costly. This often leads to forecasts that outperform traditional polling and expert commentary.

WHY PREDICTION MARKETS DOMINATE INFORMATION MARKETS

Prediction markets combine three critical elements.

First, they turn information into a financial asset. Second, they provide a clear feedback loop through settlement. Third, they scale naturally with liquidity and participation.

Many other information market models struggle to enforce accountability or resolve disputes over correctness. Prediction markets avoid this by anchoring outcomes to real world events with binary resolution.

This structural clarity is why prediction markets have become the most mature and capitalized segment within information markets.

KAITO INFORMATION MARKET TOP 5

Based on 30 day mindshare rankings, the following projects currently dominate attention within information markets.

Polymarket — 40% The most recognized onchain prediction market. Built on Polygon, Polymarket has achieved deep liquidity and broad event coverage. Due to regulatory constraints, it does not currently operate in the United States, but compliance efforts remain ongoing.

Limitless — 26.58% A prediction market built on Base. Its defining feature is short duration markets that resolve within hours, days, or weeks. Faster settlement allows capital to recycle more efficiently. Limitless recently gained strong visibility through the Kaito launchpad, with demand far exceeding initial allocations.

Kalshi — 6.37% A fully regulated prediction market exchange in the United States under CFTC oversight. Kalshi has expanded through partnerships with Base and Solana. Trading volume has surged following regulatory clarity, recently surpassing Polymarket and making it the largest prediction market by volume.

Talus — 5.55% Talus integrates prediction markets with AI agents. Developers can deploy agents that autonomously trade markets, while users can speculate on agent performance itself. The project has received significant backing from the Sui Foundation and Walrus Foundation. It is currently live on testnet.

MYRIAD — 4.68% Founded by DASTAN, the parent company behind Decrypt Media and Rug Radio. MYRIAD extends a media ecosystem into prediction markets. It supports wallet free onboarding through social login, chain abstraction, and multichain markets. Its browser extension allows users to place embedded predictions directly while browsing the web, combining distribution with participation.

WHY THIS MATTERS NOW

The Kaito leaderboard makes one thing clear. Prediction markets are no longer a niche experiment. They are the core economic engine of today’s information markets.

In a recent interview, Kalshi’s head of business and media said that prediction markets could become a trillion dollar asset class. This no longer sounds like speculation.

After regulatory pathways reopened in the United States, Kalshi’s volume surged and overtook Polymarket. This shift highlights two realities. Prediction markets scale fastest where legal clarity exists. And the US remains one of the most important demand centers for crypto native financial products.

Information markets are ultimately about trust, accuracy, and coordination. Prediction markets currently offer the most effective mechanism to price those qualities.

〈What Is an Information Market and How Is It Different From a Prediction Market〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。