Recently, there has been a subtle shift in Wall Street sentiment, gradually moving from inflation concerns to an employment crisis. The unemployment rate has surged from 4% to 4.6%, which is not just a number; it reflects a freeze in corporate hiring and a wave of layoffs.

Where is the real problem? The surface unemployment data may conceal deeper economic risks. Tariff policies have directly cut over 70,000 factory jobs, and the wave of bankruptcies continues. More alarmingly, economist Rosenberg warns that by 2026, US employment growth could approach zero, which is the true black swan.

Economic data has begun to show cracks. The savings rate has collapsed, income growth has stagnated, and retail consumption growth is only 0.2%. Sales of non-essential consumer goods are declining across the board, and the entire economy is forming a K-shaped split—the gap in consumption ability between the rich and the poor is widening, and the hollowing out of the middle class is becoming increasingly evident.

The rate cut game has already begun. Wall Street conservatives expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, but Rosenberg is more aggressive, believing that a violent rate cut of 125 basis points is necessary, bringing rates below 2.25% to save the market. The divergence between the two factions essentially reflects the dilemma between inflation and growth.

This week will be a critical moment. China and the US PMI data will be released soon, and the US non-farm employment report will be a heavy bombshell. These data will directly determine the rate cut expectations for January, thereby influencing global asset allocation.

If Rosenberg’s prophecy comes true, 2026 will face not a soft landing, but a global shock triggered by exploding unemployment and rate cuts. In this macro context, Bitcoin’s appeal as a borderless asset may significantly increase.