ETH futures are still struggling in a bearish pattern. But the real storm might come from another direction.

The recent trigger for market panic is this: MSCI, the world's largest index provider, is considering removing MicroStrategy from its global benchmark indices. At first glance, it doesn't seem like a big deal, but think about it carefully—the consequences could be severe.

MSCI's logic is this—if a company's digital assets (like Bitcoin) make up more than 50% of its total assets, that company is more like an investment fund rather than a real operating business. MSCI's index system generally excludes investment funds. Currently, about 77% of MicroStrategy's holdings are Bitcoin. That's a perfect trigger.

The final decision is scheduled to be announced on January 15, 2026, and will take effect in February. It doesn't sound far off.

How serious is this for MicroStrategy? Saying it's worse than being "kicked out of an ETF" isn't an exaggeration. Being removed from MSCI indices isn't just a reputational hit; actual money will flow out rapidly. Funds that passively track MSCI indices (ETFs, index funds) will be forced to sell stocks. JPMorgan estimates that this could trigger forced sales ranging from $2.8 billion to $11.6 billion.

Even more painful is the financing aspect. MicroStrategy has previously relied on issuing new shares to buy Bitcoin and achieve rapid wealth. If the stock price crashes due to being kicked out of the index or loses support from index funds, its financing ability will be severely impacted, and a debt crisis isn't impossible.

The most worrying is the domino effect. If MSCI really does this, Nasdaq 100 or other index providers might follow suit. That would be a true catastrophe.