#数字资产动态追踪 The unemployment rate has risen from 4% to 4.6%, and the wave of layoffs continues to ferment. Tariff impacts have already cut over 70,000 factory jobs, and bankruptcy risks are gradually increasing. This is not just a change in numbers—it reflects a quiet shift in the employment market.

Economic analyst Rosenberg's recent views have sparked attention: the labor market is shrinking, which could be a more dangerous signal than inflation. If U.S. employment growth approaches zero by 2026, the economy's fragility will be fully exposed.

GDP growth is barely supported by imports, but the average person's wallet has long been emptied. Savings rates are collapsing, income stagnates, and retail consumption growth is only 0.2%—non-essential consumption is retreating across the board, and the K-shaped economic pattern is becoming increasingly apparent.

Regarding the rate cut trajectory, the market is now divided into two camps. The mainstream expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points, but Rosenberg insists that more aggressive action is needed—a violent rate cut of 125 basis points, directly lowering the interest rate to 2.25%. While some worry about inflation rebounding, others are eager to rescue the market. The outcome of the hawk-dove game will determine the next asset trends.

This week's data release window is crucial: from Monday to Wednesday, China-US PMI comparisons, and on Friday, the US non-farm payrolls report. Whether these economic indicators can confirm market expectations of rate cuts will directly influence global capital flows and risk asset pricing.

If Rosenberg's prophecy comes true, what awaits us in 2026 may not be a soft landing but rather global financial volatility triggered by soaring unemployment and central banks being forced to cut rates sharply. For those paying attention to market rhythm, every piece of data during this window is worth close monitoring.