#2026年比特币行情展望 Former Merrill Lynch Chief Analyst David Rosenberg recently warned that the U.S. economy could enter a downturn by 2026. His core assessment is straightforward—unemployment will quickly surpass 5%, potentially reaching 6% by the end of the year.

What does this mean? It indicates that the labor market is not cooling gently but is truly contracting. Once employment collapses, economic growth will inevitably come under pressure. The Federal Reserve has no choice but to significantly loosen monetary policy. Rosenberg predicts that by the end of 2026, the Fed will have cut interest rates by a total of 125 basis points, gradually lowering from current levels to 2.25%—equivalent to five consecutive cuts of 25 basis points each.

Interestingly, the market has previously been predicting a moderate adjustment in Fed policy, but the reality could be more intense. The risk of recession is emerging. $BTC, as a hedge asset, often gains popularity during such easing cycles.

Will the rate cuts happen as scheduled? How quickly will policy shift? These factors will directly influence the market rhythm in 2026.