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Recently, a sensational debate has erupted in the US economic circle. A prominent figure at the American Economic Association annual meeting voiced the opinion: the risk of "fiscal kidnapping" of the central bank by the government is intensifying.
What exactly is happening? Current government officials openly demand the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, with a straightforward reason — to ease the debt repayment pressure on the government. It sounds harmless, but the underlying logic is dangerous: the central bank is forced to compromise, and the independence of economic governance is collapsing.
Economists present at the same event also couldn't stay silent. A former Federal Reserve governor even stated outright: the most frightening thing is not the debt itself, but that those in power may not even realize how serious it is. Past governments, even if inactive, at least understood that they were playing with fire. Now, it’s different — they might truly not have thought through the consequences.
The numbers are clear: this year's federal deficit is expected to surpass $1.9 trillion. The debt-to-GDP ratio? It’s already approaching 100%, and looking ahead to the next decade, this figure could soar to around 118%. This is not a healthy growth trajectory; it’s walking a tightrope.
What does this mean for investors? The uncertainty of liquidity policies has suddenly increased sharply. How much room does the central bank still have for independent operations? What will happen to the dollar policy? How will global capital allocation adjust? These have become major issues.
However, people are not entirely pessimistic. Some analysts believe that the potential crisis could instead serve as a turning point, pulling Congress out of the quagmire of partisan stances and forcing both parties to sit down and genuinely discuss reforms. Of course, this depends on how the situation develops moving forward.