Recently, there has been a forecast coming from Wall Street indicating that by 2026, the US economy may reach a watershed moment.

On the surface, the current job market still seems stable, but several senior analysts are sounding the alarm — the unemployment rate is unlikely to stay low forever and is expected to gradually rise, possibly reaching a relatively high level by the end of 2026. This sounds a bit heavy, but the underlying logic is quite clear: once the labor market enters a correction, the entire economic chain will loosen.

Think about it, when the unemployment wave hits, household spending willingness immediately drops, and wallets naturally tighten. Seeing weak consumption, companies will slow down their investment pace. One domino after another, ultimately affecting the operational efficiency of the entire economy. This chain reaction has occurred more than once in history.

Based on this logic, the market is now pondering how the Federal Reserve will respond. The mainstream expectation is that by the end of 2026, the Fed will implement phased rate cuts, with a cumulative reduction possibly exceeding 100 basis points. This is somewhat more aggressive than the current prevailing views in the market.

The reality is complex. The US economy is still holding on, but interest rate environments are changing, policy support is waning, and external uncertainties are accumulating. These factors combined will likely cause volatility ahead. For crypto participants, this is precisely the time to prioritize risk management — keep an eye on employment data, consumption indicators, and other economic barometers to prepare for possible changes in advance.