2026-01-04 17:23:17

Looking at previous bear market cycles, this rebound indeed hasn't ended, but its strength is really weak. The daily chart needs to break above the zero line, and the RSI must rise higher than the wave in December last year to have data support. Currently, it's basically flat, which is not very optimistic. According to technical patterns, the reasonable range for this rebound is between 3300 and 3500.

To be honest, I advise everyone not to blindly go long. The rebound is almost at the end, and the short-term gain of one or two hundred points carries too much risk and could easily trap you at the top. If you still hold spot holdings, consider exiting above 3300.

From a larger cycle perspective, the weekly and monthly charts are all bearish patterns, with moving averages arranged chaotically and death crosses crossing the zero line. Bitcoin's support levels have been easily broken, and the overall rebound strength is actually quite weak. My judgment is that this wave is mainly a oversold rebound of altcoins, which has temporarily pulled Bitcoin up, so the high point of Bitcoin in this round won't be very high.

The online rumors of 100,000 or 110,000? Forget it. I think 96,000 is already the ceiling, whether it can be reached is another story. Conversely, breaking below 80,000 and even rushing towards 60,000 is very likely to happen this year. Institutions and big whales have already sold out, so why would they push the price back to the crazy buying range from earlier? Logically, it simply doesn't make sense.

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LiquidatedNotStirred

· 01-07 15:43

Still looking at the technicals? Bro, take my analysis with a grain of salt this time. Did the institutions really sell out? Then who's buying? I've noted the 3300-3500 range, I'll watch it again later. The feeling of being trapped at the top... really uncomfortable. The 96,000 ceiling is too absolute a statement; who can say for sure? Anyway, holding the position comes down to one word: endure.

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PretendingSerious

· 01-04 17:53

Uh, I feel like this rebound is just weak and feeble, with no real momentum. Institutions have already exited, what are you still hoping for? I think 80,000 is even questionable. This round is just altcoins messing around, don't get fooled. 96,000 is the ceiling, 100,000? Dream on, buddy. If spot prices hit 3,300, I'm out decisively. I really don't want to wait to die at the top.

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BlockchainTherapist

· 01-04 17:52

Really, watching this rebound is a bit exhausting, the strength is so weak that I don't even want to look at the candlesticks anymore. To be honest, institutions have already left, so why are we still here picking up the bag? 3300 should be the point to consider exiting, don't wait until the top to regret. 60,000 is not a dream, it might even be this year's story. 100,000? Dream on, buddy, 96K is already a stretch.

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HashRateHustler

· 01-04 17:46

This guy makes some sense, but I still think he's being a bit overly pessimistic. The institutions really aren't going to sell everything so quickly, right? --- Is the rebound coming to an end? By this logic, it should have broken below 80,000 by now, but instead, it's still hesitating. That's interesting. --- I agree with the 3300-3500 range, but if 60,000 really comes, I'll go all-in without hesitation. --- If 96,000 is the ceiling, then let's make a bet. I bet it can reach that level. --- Are all the whales out? Then who is buying now? Are they just playing themselves? --- Those holding spot assets should consider reducing their positions, but don't sell everything. I haven't fully figured out this logic yet. --- The weekly and monthly death crosses are correct, but that's how history works. After falling, there has to be a rebound. Isn't that magical? --- Ten thousand and eleven thousand are indeed uncertain, but as for 6,000, I believe you this time. Most likely, it will break this year.

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InfraVibes

· 01-04 17:41

Hmm... This rebound is indeed not as fierce as expected, it looks a bit虚虚。 Wait, if institutions have already sold off, how can it be pushed up? The logic checks out. Above 3300, you really need to consider running, don't wait to be trapped at high levels. Dreaming of 100,000, wake up. 96k is already very optimistic as a ceiling. RSI staying flat is indeed boring, the feeling of the rebound ending is getting stronger. Is 60,000 really coming? I always feel this market this year is very strange. Shanzhai oversold rebound pulling Bitcoin, I agree with this logic, it's very weak. Don't blindly go long, the short-term risk is really high, too many people trapped at the top.

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SadMoneyMeow

· 01-04 17:25

This guy's statement is outrageous. If institutions have already started selling, how can they still talk about a ceiling? It's bound to plummet rapidly.

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