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The recent rally in the crypto market is indeed different. It's not the kind of leverage-driven, everyone-partying rally; instead, it feels more like a "steady and solid" climb. What's the underlying logic behind this?
Breaking down this rebound, there are actually three forces working together:
**Geopolitical Changes, Safe-Haven Funds Bottoming Out**
Political fluctuations in places like Venezuela have caused concern in traditional finance circles about sovereign credit issues. Under this uncertainty, Bitcoin's advantage as a "decentralized asset" has been rediscovered. Simply put, some are using it as a hedge. The short-term sentiment driven by this can indeed push prices higher.
**Futures Market Cleanup, Leverage Positions Swept Out**
In the past day, approximately $180 million of futures leverage was liquidated across the market, mostly shorts. This sounds aggressive, but in reality, it's a good thing — those unstable high-leverage positions have been cleared out. The market has become more "clean," and the pressure for further upward movement has decreased.
**Spot Market Funds Are the True Drivers**
This is the key point. Looking at futures data makes it clear: the funding rate remains at a healthy level of around 4%, and open interest has significantly decreased. What does this indicate? This rally is mainly driven not by futures traders speculating, but by genuine buying in the spot market. This "spot-led" pattern tends to be more solid and less prone to bubbles.
**In summary**: Geopolitical events ignited market sentiment, institutions took the opportunity to clear risky leveraged shorts, and then spot market funds steadily continued the rally. This isn't a "leverage bull," but a "spot bull."
Of course, don't forget the risk warning — the heat from geopolitical factors may fade, and macro factors like Federal Reserve policies and global liquidity remain constraints.
In the short term, a few points to watch: Can Bitcoin hold above $92,000 and push higher? Will Ethereum follow with increased volume and break through? Manage your positions prudently — don't be scared out of the market or chase the highs.
If this rally is truly driven by spot market activity, where do you think the ceiling is? Share your thoughts in the comments.