LINK vs FIL: On the eve of Q1, which AI track is more worth betting on

At the start of 2026, Chainlink and Filecoin have become the two major AI infrastructure tokens that the market is repeatedly benchmarking. One advances steadily with its funding advantage, while the other is gathering momentum through active development. As the market prepares for Q1 deployment, the differences and opportunities between these two projects are becoming increasingly clear.

Development Activity: FIL Leads, but the Gap Is Not That Big

According to Santiment data, among AI and big data-related tokens, Filecoin ranks first in development activity, with Chainlink in second place. What does this ranking reflect?

High development activity generally indicates more frequent protocol iterations and stronger long-term adoption potential. From this perspective, FIL has indeed maintained a higher pace at the underlying development level. However, it’s important to note that although Chainlink ranks second, as a mature oracle infrastructure, its development activity is still sufficient to support ongoing ecosystem evolution.

Development characteristics of both

Filecoin’s active development is more focused on storage network optimization and feature expansion, while Chainlink’s development concentrates on multi-chain adaptation of oracle functions and supporting new application scenarios. This difference determines their roles in the ecosystem—one as a storage infrastructure, the other as a data infrastructure.

Funding Perspective: LINK Is Gaining an Advantage

From on-chain fund activity, Chainlink currently holds a more advantageous position. According to the latest data, the reserve addresses of Chainlink have recently added over 94,000 LINK tokens. Such behavior is often interpreted as a medium- to long-term bullish signal, reflecting sustained optimism from institutions or core participants about LINK’s position in the AI oracle field.

Compared to Filecoin, FIL has risen about 19.5% over the past week, showing good short-term momentum, but this is more of a technical rebound rather than sustained institutional accumulation.

Price Performance Comparison

Technical Structure: LINK Is More Stable, FIL Needs a Breakthrough

This is the biggest difference between the two projects.

Filecoin was in an overall downtrend in 2025, with $3 serving as a key psychological resistance level that has been repeatedly tested but not effectively broken. This means that if FIL is to confirm a mid-term trend reversal in Q1, it must turn $3 from resistance into support. Otherwise, the current rebound is more likely just a cyclical bounce rather than a trend reversal.

In contrast, Chainlink experienced a significant rally in mid-2025, and its weekly fluctuation structure remains bullish. Although there is short-term adjustment pressure, its overall trend stability is clearly better than FIL. From a purely technical perspective, LINK offers a more favorable risk-reward ratio for conservative investors.

Technical Characteristics of Both

Filecoin

• Needs to break key resistance to confirm trend reversal
• Has high rebound elasticity but lower certainty
• Seasonal patterns (historically Q1 often sees strong moves) may serve as support

Chainlink

• Weekly bullish structure remains intact
• Greater trend stability, manageable correction pressure
• Wide ecosystem application and sustained fundamental support

Investment Characteristics: Choice Depends on Risk Preference

Overall, these two projects represent two different investment logics within AI tokens.

Filecoin leans toward “high elasticity, high volatility” cyclical opportunities. If the market recovers overall in Q1, FIL could see larger stage gains, making it attractive for short-term profit seekers. However, this opportunity comes with relatively higher volatility and risk.

Chainlink, on the other hand, embodies a “fundamental AI infrastructure asset,” with a clearer long-term narrative. The irreplaceability of oracles in DeFi, RWA, and AI applications, along with continuous ecosystem expansion, provides more stable fundamental support for LINK. For investors aiming to control risk and seek certainty, LINK is a relatively safer choice.

Summary

On the eve of Q1, LINK and FIL each present opportunities, but of completely different natures. LINK is a fundamental infrastructure asset, representing a bet on long-term adoption; FIL is a cyclical opportunity, capturing short-term rebounds. If you are optimistic about the overall market recovery, both projects are worth watching, but your choice should depend on your risk tolerance and investment horizon. For most investors, LINK’s stability and ecosystem support make it a more balanced option.