#美联储政策 The suspense around the Federal Reserve Chair this time is indeed quite interesting. After Waller's interview, the probability on Polymarket is only 14%, while Haskett has surged directly to 56%—such reversals in probability often correspond to real shifts in capital flow in policy markets.

From a trading perspective, the logic behind this is worth pondering. Haskett advocates for more aggressive fiscal stimulus, which is clearly favorable for risk assets; whereas Waller, being more hawkish, has a relatively reserved market acceptance. Moving forward, the performance of US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and even the crypto market could all trigger chain reactions due to this personnel change.

Recently, I’ve been consulting with several traders skilled in macro policy betting. Their logic is—before such certainty events materialize, it’s often the best window for building positions. The key is to identify which traders are genuinely pricing in this expectation, rather than just following the trend. Those who can position themselves half a step ahead and maintain strict stop-loss discipline are the ones worth paying close attention to.

Once the final candidate is announced, the market’s reaction will be very straightforward, and it will be clearer in hindsight.