#美联储降息政策 A review of recent macroeconomic data reveals several signals worth noting. The Federal Reserve interest rate swaps indicate that there will be a further easing of 3 basis points by the end of 2026, consistent with Delphi's forward-looking report logic — major global central banks have shifted towards rate cuts, quantitative tightening is nearing its end, and fiscal deficits are driving increased liquidity demand.

Key observation points: Global M2 and gold have hit new highs, and central banks continue to buy gold, reflecting a persistent trend of currency devaluation. Historically, gold and liquidity indicators tend to lead Bitcoin. Based on this logic, the certainty of liquidity improvement by 2026 is increasing.

It should be clarified that this round of easing is more "moderate and predictable" than in 2020, and it won't be a sudden flood of liquidity. However, this clear policy direction and consistency may have a deeper impact on asset allocation.

Current on-chain movements and institutional holdings are still confirming this trend. Going forward, focus can be placed on tracking liquidity changes in whale addresses and large contract data to see if funds are being pre-positioned.