Let's start with the conclusion: it's going up.

The essence of the rise and fall in the crypto world is actually very simple—it's about contract positions and liquidity provided by market makers playing a game. Mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum are no exception; they follow the same logic.

The Federal Reserve's consecutive rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction are indeed epic positive signals. But the problem is, the bulls have already crowded onto the boat; it's too heavy, and as a result, it turns downward. This is very normal.

So what's the key? The good news hasn't disappeared. As long as the Federal Reserve doesn't restart the rate hike cycle, this positive signal will persist. A truly one-sided surge—such as the second half of a bull market and the altcoin season—won't appear out of nowhere. It requires a trigger, and there's only one: a large-scale gathering of bears.

Currently, with the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes and market makers possibly creating some negative news, bears could gather. When the bears are at their most numerous, that's actually when a one-sided surge happens. This is a classic collision logic.

Let's wait and see; the next few months will be very interesting.