After the launch of the TAO ETF, the subsequent market trend mainly depends on three key factors.

**Institutional participation** is the top priority. As a compliant investment tool, ETFs that were previously blocked by regulatory policies now have a channel for large institutional investors to enter. The TAO ETF launched by Grayscale connects to the traditional financial market and can attract a new influx of participants. More interestingly, the Swiss STAO product design—investors can earn profits from price appreciation and also receive staking rewards—this dual-income model makes holding the coin more attractive. Increased capital activity naturally leads to higher trading volume and coin valuation.

**Changes on the supply side** should not be overlooked. With TAO's halving imminent, the daily new supply drops from 7200 to 3600 coins, significantly shrinking the market circulation. If the purchasing power brought by the ETF remains stable, the supply and demand balance will tilt toward higher prices. Historical halving cycles suggest this could help TAO break through the $300 mark and challenge the $400-$678 range.

**Technical analysis and popularity** are also reinforcing each other. Currently, TAO futures open interest is expanding, and the positive financing rate indicates a bullish market sentiment. Once the weekly close surpasses $400, the technical pattern will confirm entry into the $500-$700 target zone, attracting trend-following traders to join in, creating a positive feedback loop that drives prices higher and attracts more buy orders.