2026-01-02 08:21:08

Iran is facing a severe economic crisis. Since early 2026, multiple cities have experienced continuous large-scale protests, which have lasted for five days. It seems that people's lives are really difficult.

Numbers tell the story. The official inflation rate rose to 42.2% in December, but this is not the most alarming part—the actual inflation of commonly used goods is much higher. Food inflation is at 72%, and according to World Bank data, food prices had already increased by 64.2% in October. What does this mean? Your savings are rapidly losing value. Wages have not kept pace, and people can only keep using their savings to maintain daily life. After several rounds, savings are running out.

Looking back at history. Before 2018, Iran experienced a brief period of relative stability. The signing of the Iran nuclear deal brought optimistic expectations, and the exchange rate stabilized at 50,000 rials to 1 USD. But everything changed when Trump withdrew from the agreement. By the end of 2025, the exchange rate had fallen to 1,420,000, a devaluation of 28 times. International oil prices also didn't help, hovering below $60 throughout.

Oil should have been Iran's lifeline, but reality is complicated. Due to international sanctions, oil trade is essentially barter—oil for goods, recorded in special accounts. This money can only be used for specific trades and cannot be freely exchanged for foreign currency. Want to buy goods from other countries? Not enough hard foreign exchange reserves. The result is a broken local supply chain and soaring prices.

In terms of income, oil exports are expected to be $40-45 billion in 2025, which sounds like a lot. But compared to historical data, it was over $100 billion in 2011, $70 billion in 2018, and even in 2024, it was still $55 billion. The downward trend is clear.

The fundamental problem lies in the fragility of the economic structure. State-owned enterprises are inefficient, and the economy is overly dependent on oil. Once foreign exchange becomes tight, the country falls into a dilemma. Domestic production capacity has been damaged, and costs for external procurement have risen. Both the leadership and the public are anxious, and military and economic disadvantages are becoming more apparent. Conflicts with neighboring countries in 2025 have only made things worse.

Ultimately, if Iran can stabilize its existing international trade relations, it can barely survive. But the economic model built in the past has already collapsed, at a heavy cost.

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fren.eth

· 6h ago

72% food inflation, this is the real end of the economy --- Devalued 28 times... no wonder people are taking to the streets, anyone would be affected --- Trading oil for goods still requires special account bookkeeping, this is the taste of sanctions --- Fallen from 100 billion to 45 billion, this downward curve is simply a cliff --- Fragile economic structure + reliance on a single sector, this is why the pawns in great power games suffer the most --- Deposits devalue, wages don’t increase, RMB depositors can understand this sense of despair --- Inefficient state enterprises plus sanctions and encirclement, basically a deadlock --- Supply chain breakage → soaring prices → protests erupt, no one can stop this logical chain --- In short, the economic model has collapsed, and stability is impossible to achieve

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MetaverseHomeless

· 6h ago

Currency devalued by 28 times... That's why I say stablecoins are so important. --- 72% food inflation, the common people really can't take it anymore. --- The system of exchanging oil for goods, in simple terms, is just being trapped, right? --- Single economic structure = waiting to be hit hard. Iran's situation is pretty grim this time. --- Supply chain disruptions → soaring prices → zeroed-out savings, this chain reaction... Damn. --- Fallen from 70 billion to just over 40 billion, the power of sanctions is clear. --- Barter trading can't really be freely exchanged, this is the dilemma. --- Protests lasting five days without stopping, showing that people are truly fed up. --- Inefficient state-owned enterprises + reliance on a single sector = fragile economy, old tricks. --- Daring to claim 42.2% official inflation, how much higher is the actual figure?

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FOMOSapien

· 6h ago

28x devaluation? Just give up, how can we survive like this --- Still hoping to turn things around with oil prices below 60, dream on --- Supply chain disruptions, soaring prices, isn't this a vicious cycle --- In 2018, there was $70 billion in exports, now it’s down to over $40 billion, really tragic --- 72% food inflation, wages can’t keep up, savings instantly turn into worthless paper --- Barter trading, to put it simply, is being choked off, right? --- State-owned enterprises are inefficient and overly dependent on oil, the economic structure itself is flawed --- The exchange rate dropped from 50,000 to 1,420,000, no wonder there are protests everywhere --- With sanctions stacking up, even foreign exchange can’t flow freely, buying anything is difficult --- In this situation, even stabilizing trade relations is just delaying death

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BearEatsAll

· 6h ago

Currency devalued by 28 times... How can we survive? --- 72% food inflation, and we're already freaking out over a 20% increase. --- Both sanctions and oil prices, there's no way out. --- Exchanging oil for goods, it's like being trapped and killed. --- Fallen from 100 billion to over 40 billion, can production capacity not collapse? --- This is the result of a single economic structure, too dependent on oil. --- Deposits are running out, wages can't keep up, no wonder people are taking to the streets. --- The good days of 2018 now seem like a dream. --- Hard currency isn't enough, supply chains are broken, spiraling downward. --- Sanctions can really strangle a country to death.

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GasFeePhobia

· 6h ago

72% food inflation, this is damn outrageous, deposit depreciation rate is faster than a black hole sucking in everything --- Exchange rate devalued by 28 times, just looking at the numbers makes people feel suffocated, this is the real rug pull --- Oil barter system? Inability to freely exchange? Isn't this just being trapped by economic sanctions, with no liquidity for the coin --- The fundamental problem is still that the structure is too fragile, overly dependent on a single industry, once political changes happen, everything is over --- In 2018, life was better, now with 28 times devaluation, this drop is more severe than any crypto crash --- State-owned enterprises are inefficient and supply chains are broken, who can withstand this combo? No wonder people are taking to the streets --- Honestly, this is the real economic crisis, unlike some crypto circles' self-indulgent collapses

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MoonMathMagic

· 7h ago

72% food inflation? That's why I trust cryptocurrencies more than fiat currencies now, it's just too outrageous.

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