#比特币价格走势 Seeing this forecast of $86,000 to $92,000, the first thing that came to mind was the scene from 2017. Back then, we also experienced a similar period of volatility, with the market repeatedly confirming at high levels, and options expiration often becoming an invisible support and resistance point. Wintermute's judgment actually points to an old issue—the year-end portfolio adjustments and tax considerations are always easy catalysts to overlook.

What’s truly interesting is De Maere’s mention of "signs of bottoming out." This statement is very restrained and cautious. From 2011 to 2015, and then during the 2022 bear market, I’ve seen too many instances where the market appeared to be bottoming out only to falter. Between oversold conditions and the actual bottom, there’s often an invisible yet very real line. Currently, saying the market is oversold is based on short-term technical indicators, but history has shown me that relying solely on technical indicators to assert a bottom is overly naive.

The logic of waiting in a sideways market for new catalysts is correct. Options expiration, policy signals, macroeconomic changes—when these truly occur versus when they are just illusions, the difference often determines the direction over the next two or three months. Instead of frequently interpreting short-term fluctuations, it’s better to return to fundamentals and see what the current position means compared to previous cycles. That might help us see more clearly.