The effective tariff rate in the United States has now surged to 17%, a level not seen since 1935. It sounds exaggerated, but the data is right here—this is the largest tax increase in 30 years. Even though Q3 GDP growth looks solid at 4.3%, the subsequent impact of tariffs is still to come, which warrants attention.

How do tariffs affect the crypto market? Honestly, it's quite complex. In the short term, the most direct effect is to push up inflation and suppress economic growth, which is unfavorable for risk assets like stocks. But in the long run, if a global trade war truly ignites and the US dollar's credit is impacted, non-sovereign currencies like BTC might actually benefit—after all, they are not constrained by any country's policies.

Historically, tariff policies have often been linked to economic recessions. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 is a vivid example, directly exacerbating the Great Depression. But don't simply apply history blindly; the resilience of the current US economy is different—stable employment, strong consumer spending—these factors might offset some of the negative impacts of tariffs.

On the political front, if Trump continues to push tariff policies, global economic uncertainty will increase, and risk aversion will rise accordingly. At such times, BTC's performance actually depends on the market's main concerns: those fearing a recession might sell off stocks and also see BTC decline; those worried about inflation might hold BTC as a hedge.

For investors, the volatility created by tariff policies is actually a trading opportunity. Policy announcements often trigger sharp fluctuations, and using options to trade volatility can seize these opportunities, but never bet heavily on a single direction.

In the long run, the era of tariffs calls for more diversified assets. Don't put all your chips into one asset class—allocate some to US stocks, European stocks, gold, BTC, and bonds, adjusting the proportions flexibly according to your risk tolerance.

The current conservative allocation recommendation is: 20% cash, 20% bonds, 40% stocks, 10% gold, 10% BTC. Start with this allocation and adjust once the policy directions become clearer.