The upcoming year 2026 in the financial world promises plenty of drama. JPMorgan announced that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates once throughout the year, while Goldman Sachs has already outlined a schedule for continuous rate cuts starting in March. The clash of predictions from these two major investment banks has directly ignited market sentiment—BTC rose 2% during the day but fell 3% at night; stories of long and short positions exploding in the ETH futures market are everywhere; many traders are confused—is this a bottom-fishing opportunity or a risk signal?

Let's clarify the core issue: the "single-choice question" posed by institutions is actually a false proposition. The Fed's pace of rate cuts in 2026 will ultimately be determined by employment and inflation data, and the crypto market's jumps are real-time reactions to this data "tug-of-war."

JPMorgan's logic is plausible. While the US core PCE has eased somewhat, service sector inflation remains high—medical and housing costs have not significantly declined, so the Federal Reserve officials are likely to be cautious about easing. In contrast, Goldman Sachs sees manufacturing PMI continuing to decline, and signs of spreading layoffs in the tech industry. If the employment market loosens, the pressure to cut rates will increase. Both sets of reasoning are valid, but they both overlook one variable.

The most easily overlooked factor is the divergence in global central bank policies. If Japan and Europe tighten monetary policy simultaneously while the Fed cuts rates alone, the dollar's depreciation expectations will be reassessed, and cross-border capital flows will adjust accordingly. This policy gap often has a more dramatic impact on crypto assets than the mere expectation of rate cuts. In other words, instead of obsessing over how many times the Fed will cut rates, it’s more important to focus on the synchronization of global central bank policies—this is the true "hidden variable" that will determine the major direction of the crypto market in 2026.