Wall Street is burning with enthusiasm, with Bitcoin expected to reach $150,000 or even $250,000 by 2026—sounds exciting. But what about the traders who actually put their money on the line? Their answer is much colder: a 21% chance of success.

How big is this gap? Imagine analysts unanimously optimistic about a target, but when it comes to real money verification, the heat instantly turns from blazing fire to icy water.

Currently, Bitcoin's price swings between $76,000 and $78,000. Doubling to $150,000 or tripling to $250,000—within an environment where liquidity hasn't fully recovered—sounds like a big pie in the sky. Market prediction data is straightforward: only a 21% chance of breaking $150,000 this year.

The underlying logic is actually quite sobering. After the rollercoaster miscalculations in 2025, the entire valuation framework is being reexamined. Analysts are used to weaving grand narratives—about super assets, institutional layouts—but traders care more about liquidity, risk-reward ratios, and whether these prices are truly sustainable.

Interestingly, institutions seem to be adjusting their stance as well. Take Tether, for example, which added 8,888 Bitcoin in Q4, with total holdings approaching 120,000 BTC. This indicates that big funds are not entirely bearish. Yet, the market's冷淡态度 (cold attitude) reminds us: forming consensus is much more complex than surface-level hype.

The gap between analysis and trading perhaps reflects the market's ongoing redefinition of what constitutes a "reasonable valuation."