2025 is over, and Bitcoin has completed its yearly close at the last second.

This time, the result was beyond many expectations: BTC closed the year below the level at the beginning of the year. What's even more interesting is that this is the first time in history that an annual decline has been recorded a year after the halving. This phenomenon immediately detonated discussions in the market - some people began to question whether the once reliable "four-year cycle" was really going to be discontinued.

Looking back at the background. In April 2024, Bitcoin completed its latest halving round. According to historical laws, halvings usually usher in a new round of gains. Indeed, BTC hit an all-time high of $126,000 on October 6. But the story that followed was not so exciting - the price corrected sharply, falling more than 30% from its high so far, and the performance for the whole year was significantly weaker.

How big is this contrast? Just look at the historical data. In the year after the 2012 halving, Bitcoin rose 186%. What about after the 2016 halving? Up 124%. The halving cycle in 2020 was even more intense, with an annual increase of 303%. But this time...... In 2025, it is -5%.

Some analysts have been blunt. Vivek Sen, founder of Bitgrow Lab, said that Bitcoin's decline in the post-halving year means the end of an era - "the official death of the four-year cycle." It's a heavy story, but the data is there.

However, some people have given a new framework for interpretation. Investor Armando Pantoja made an interesting point: the current crypto market is no longer the era of retail investors. The launch of spot ETFs, the large-scale entry of institutional funds, and the allocation of corporate balance sheets...... All of this is changing Bitcoin's pricing logic. The simple law of the past driven by retail sentiment and the halving will rise has been replaced by multiple macro factors such as liquidity, interest rates, regulatory policies, and geopolitics. In other words, Bitcoin's volatility is now more like following the pulse of the entire financial system.

But that's not all the sounds. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, gave an intermediate judgment: the four-year cycle did not die completely, but changed shape. It is no longer driven solely by the factor of "programmatic production cuts", but is presented in a new form. This statement somewhat gives some comfort to those who believe in periodic theory.

To really see these changes, you might as well take a step back. Give up staring at time-sharing charts and hourly charts and look at larger-scale annual candlestick charts. What will you find when you look at it this way?

From +1473% in 2011, to +186% in 2012, to the crazy +5428% in 2013...... Bitcoin's early years were volatile and violent. But look at recent years: +155% in 2023, +121% in 2024, -5% in 2025. The volatility range is narrowing, and the growth rate is slowing down. This is not only a manifestation of market maturity, but may also mean that the market law represented by the four-year cycle theory is undergoing some fundamental change.

Is it understood this way: as more institutional funds, more complete financial products, and stricter regulatory frameworks enter the market, Bitcoin is gradually evolving from a speculative product easily swayed by retail sentiment to an asset class closer to the macroeconomic cycle. The halving is still important, but its force is being diluted. Interest rates, inflation, dollar policy, geopolitical conflicts...... These are the new drivers.

The market is currently very divided on Bitcoin's long-term cyclical structure, and this divide is growing. Some have announced the death of the old law, some say it is just transforming, and others are waiting to see what kind of trend 2026 will bring. But in any case, a subtle turning point of an era is happening right in front of us.