Recently, when I open the candlestick chart, I start to suspect that the market software might be malfunctioning. BTC has been sideways near $88,600 for almost a week, unable to go up or down, and the overall market activity has clearly declined. If you ask why this is happening, the main culprit points to the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes in December.

In that minutes, Fed officials really argued fiercely. It's not that there was no consensus—most agreed that if inflation drops, interest rate cuts should be considered. But on the specific implementation level, opinions diverged completely. Some advocated for action in January to stabilize economic expectations, while others insisted on further observation, worried about a rebound in inflation. The result was everyone sticking to their own reasoning, and the final guidance basically boiled down to "wait for the data."

Looking at market pricing, the probability of holding interest rates steady in January is already locked at 85%. This is not baseless; it's because the current economic data itself is full of contradictions. The unemployment rate in November suddenly rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, while consumer price increases were below expectations. This set of data is quite favorable for officials supporting rate cuts. But on the other hand, the Q3 GDP annualized growth rate surged to 4.3%, hitting a two-year high, which gives more leverage to those opposing rate cuts.

These conflicting data points directly reflect the deadlock in the crypto market. Funds are on the sidelines, prices are oscillating, waiting for a clear signal from the Federal Reserve's next move.