2025 is a bit outrageous——the US dollar experienced its worst performance in 8 years, while gold and silver surged like they were on steroids. More importantly, the crypto world has fewer Buffett-like hardcore skeptics and instead has attracted a group of capital giants watching closely. The question now before us is: can the US dollar rebound in 2026? When will the bear market end? Will the crypto market really celebrate?

As an experienced investor who has transitioned from US stocks to crypto, I have to say—the answer might surprise you.

**The US dollar's dilemma isn't with the Federal Reserve**

Many people are still watching the Fed's policies, but the real issue lies elsewhere. The world is playing the "de-dollarization" game, and this is nothing new. IMF data has long shown that the proportion of US dollar foreign exchange reserves has fallen below 60% for 11 consecutive quarters, something unseen in the past 30 years.

Even if the Fed slows down its rate hikes, it won't fundamentally change this trend. But from another perspective, this actually presents an opportunity for crypto investors. Where will the money go when US dollar assets flow out? Some will definitely go into gold, but what about the rest? Cryptocurrencies could become an important recipient.

**2026: From retail showcase to institutional stage**

The crypto market in this year has a clear characteristic—differentiation.

On the Bitcoin side, ETF funds are pouring in continuously, and the halving cycle is also playing a role. But you need to be mentally prepared: volatility might decrease. What does this mean? It means there could be fewer opportunities for large swing arbitrage.

New public chains like Solana and Avalanche are different. With their high throughput capabilities, they are attracting consumer-grade applications. From transaction speed to fee costs, they are much more user-friendly than Ethereum.

But don’t just think about making money; policy risks must also be considered. Election years in the US tend to trigger regulatory uncertainties, and the SEC’s moves must be watched closely. A single document could change the entire market sentiment.

**The underlying logic is really just this**

Funds are flowing from declining US dollar assets into safe-haven and growth assets—that’s the big trend. Bitcoin’s position as digital gold is becoming more solid, and institutional participation is increasing. The era of purely retail frenzy may truly be over.

When making investment decisions, don’t be blinded by short-term fluctuations. Understanding these big backgrounds is key to grasping the true logic of the 2026 market.