Recently, this wave of market movement has left people feeling a bit confused. Bitcoin and Ethereum both plunged over 22% in Q4, and the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies was halved from 3.3 trillion to 2.93 trillion. The anticipated Christmas rebound didn't materialize; instead, it was a cold shower of sentiment—shifting directly from previous frantic FOMO to a wait-and-see mode.

At this time, there are usually two voices. One says this is the bear market coming, and it's time to run; the other says the bear market is the real opportunity for strategic positioning. How to judge? On-chain data can be quite revealing. Bitcoin is net outflowing over 5,000 coins daily from exchanges, indicating that large holders are quietly accumulating without signs of panic selling. Ethereum's staking queue has also reversed, with institutions quietly entering the market. These signals are somewhat reassuring.

Looking at the technical side, BTC has formed a symmetrical triangle near $87,000, and the breakout direction is especially important—this will largely determine the rhythm after Q1 2026.

Ultimately, the market is never short of volatility; what’s rare is maintaining a clear mind amidst the turbulence.