The annual long upper shadow sets the tone! Old investors analyze Bitcoin's two major bottom zones; the bear market is no longer just a short-term correction.

2025 has passed like this, with Bitcoin reaching a glorious new high in 2025, but most other non-Bitcoin assets have been disastrous. Many old investors have been wiped out by the bull market. The market draws each candlestick in a familiar yet unfamiliar state, telling the story of industry maturity and transformation!
Bitcoin's annual line has closed. From the yearly perspective, it shows a long upper shadow, a short real body, and a short lower shadow—weakening at the end of the rally, unable to hide the downward trend. The MA7 of the yearly line is around 57,600. Historically, the bottoms of the last two bear markets have fallen near the MA7 of the yearly line, so this level should be marked. If a deep bear occurs, this could very well be the bottom zone of the major bear.

From a Fibonacci perspective, dividing the 2024 bullish rally, support is strongest at 0.5 and 0.382 levels. The 0.5 level is 67,929, and the 0.382 level is 61,877. The good news is that 67,929 is close to the previous bull market high of 69,000, forming a resonant support, which is quite strong. Therefore, if the market does not enter a deep bear, this could be the bottom of this correction. The 0.382 level at 61,877 is also near the MA7 at 57,600, aligning with the deep bear zone. These two levels are very important—note them carefully!

Looking at the monthly chart, the MACD shows a death cross at a high position, far from the zero line. The moving averages are also about to cross downward. After breaking below the rising channel's lower boundary at 49,000, the long-term trend has been below the bottom edge, indicating a development stage in the late bear market. The weekly chart shows a secondary top divergence, with MACD entering a bearish zone. The price repeatedly tests the upward trendline support near 86,000 but is unlikely to continue sideways for long. If it does, it will break this trendline, inevitably continuing downward.

The daily chart is still okay, with bullish divergence and potential for a rebound. However, the time for bulls is limited. The longer the sideways movement, the lower the probability of a rebound. If bulls seize the opportunity and push higher, there is still a chance to challenge the 98,000-99,000 resistance zone! Short to medium-term support is around 86,000.
Ethereum's situation is similar; it hasn't shown independent movement conditions and follows Bitcoin's trend. Short-term support is near 2,700, and long-term support is around 1,580. During a bear market, spot trading should mainly focus on swings, avoiding greed—take profits when the market looks good. Since it's hard to tell whether the market will deepen or shallow in the bear phase, it is recommended to accumulate from around 69,000 in batches, which is relatively safer. The top pick for bottom-fishing is Bitcoin.

Finally, let's discuss the macro environment. The December Federal Reserve dot plot shows only 3 rate cuts in 2026 (a total of 75 basis points). The probability of a rate cut in January has dropped to 15.5%. The market's expectation of "rapid easing" has been thoroughly revised. Prolonged high interest rates directly increase asset discount rates, and assets like Bitcoin with no cash flow may be heavily discounted in future valuations. The correlation with the US Nasdaq has strengthened, and both are under pressure. Additionally, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, ending the ultra-loose cycle. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield hit a 27-year high, and large-scale yen carry trades are being unwound. Rising yen financing costs are forcing investors to sell risk assets (including Bitcoin) to repay debts, tightening global liquidity and creating a "pumping effect."

Looking at the engine of this bull market—ETFs—between December 27-30, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $188.6 million. Year-end tax-loss harvesting combined with holiday risk aversion led to tactical capital withdrawal. Although Vanguard allows crypto ETF trading, short-term outflows reflect reduced institutional risk appetite. The long-term inflow logic for ETFs is temporarily invalid, and price rebounds lack buying support. The four core macro variables (central bank policies, liquidity, capital flows, risk appetite) have all turned bearish. The Bitcoin bear market logic is fully established; current price declines are not just short-term corrections but trend reversals. If you remain indifferent to our repeated warnings since September about not being greedy at the end of the bull, it’s time to face reality! Swing trading and proper stop-loss and take-profit strategies will be the main themes for a long time to come!

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