2026-01-01 16:21:13

When market sentiment fluctuates, the most telling indicator is often the flow of funds. As we enter 2026, two sets of data are sending a noteworthy signal.

Let's look at the first phenomenon. On the last day of last year, US BTC and ETH spot ETFs experienced a single-day net outflow of approximately $420 million. This number may seem small, but its implications are quite interesting — throughout 2025, these types of ETFs still experienced net inflows, indicating that the shift at the end of the year was not accidental. Institutional investors made the choice to "take profits" or "temporarily withdraw" at year-end, directly exerting selling pressure on the market.

Now, consider the second phenomenon. The premium index of BTC on a compliant platform has been negative for 18 consecutive days. What does this mean? It indicates that US investors are no longer willing to pay "extra money" for this asset; their enthusiasm for buying and risk tolerance are both clearly declining. The USD funds flowing through compliant channels are showing a continuous outflow trend.

These two signals combined reflect the same core message: one of the strongest drivers of the cryptocurrency market — US institutional dollar buying — is entering a phase of weakening. This is not something that retail investor sentiment fluctuations can explain; it is a vote cast by large capital with real actions.

When the steady inflow of "living water" begins to slow down or even reverse, the market's liquidity support and price foundation will face a real test. In the short term, this capital pressure is a reality that the market must absorb.

However, from another perspective, this process could also be an opportunity for "bursting bubbles" and testing the true value of assets. After the tide recedes, only assets and mechanisms with genuine vitality will emerge.

The next issue to watch is: how long will this wave of capital outflow last? Is it short-term risk avoidance or a deeper trend shift? Another key question is: where will the next wave of new narratives or products that can bring incremental funds come from? Will it continue to be driven by the US market, or will funds from other regions start to take over?

BTC0.49%

ETH0.41%

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TradFiRefugee

· 2h ago

Institutions are running away, and premiums have turned negative. Now it's really about seeing who is swimming naked. --- The US dollar from Uncle Sam is really about to be taken away. This time, no one can save the scene. --- Ending the year with gains is not surprising; what's surprising is the 18 days of negative premium... need to think about who will take over next. --- Capital outflows are just shifting blame. Retail investors should wake up. --- When the tide recedes, you can see who is truly persistent. When will the money from other regions come in? --- A net outflow of $420 million may not sound like much, but the rhythm feels off. --- The big funds have already moved their feet. Are we still waiting for a story here? --- The premium has been negative for 18 days, indicating that US investors have completely lost enthusiasm. --- Is this short-term risk avoidance or a trend reversal? This question is too critical. --- The true value should become apparent soon. Fake projects should be dead and gone.

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WalletDetective

· 2h ago

Institutions are cashing out; the game of retail investors taking the fall should be over now.

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StopLossMaster

· 2h ago

Institutions are running, and this time it's for real --- Premium discount for 18 days? Should have been alert earlier --- Money talks, it doesn't lie --- Who will be the next to take over? I'm quite curious --- Only after the bubble is squeezed out can we see clearly --- Only when the fresh water is cut off do we realize who is swimming naked --- Net outflow of 420 million, it doesn't seem much but the signal is strong --- Institutions have secured their gains, retail investors are still dreaming --- To be honest, the recent retreat in the US market is indeed interesting --- The story after the tide recedes is the real story

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liquiditea_sipper

· 2h ago

Institutions are really dumping aggressively. Taking profits and not pretending anymore. Continuous negative premium—be alert. US money is withdrawing. Wait, who will take over this position in the next wave? I’m optimistic about whether Asian funds can step up.

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ZkProofPudding

· 2h ago

Institutions are running, this is the real truth. --- It's another trick of capital flow, in simple terms, big players are harvesting the little guys. --- A net outflow of 420 million sounds like not much, but look at the entire ecosystem... Is this squeezing the bubble or is it about to collapse? --- Premium index has been negative for 18 days in a row? Damn, if Uncle Sam isn't buying anymore, who will step in? --- That's why I withdrew early, waiting to see how it plays out later. --- When the tide recedes, the true face appears, but the question is, aren't we all here to make quick money? --- Where's the next new narrative? Can we still rely on Americans to keep taking the lead?

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digital_archaeologist

· 2h ago

Are the institutions' move to "secure profits" this time meant to scare retail investors or are they really scared? --- The premium index has been negative for 18 days in a row, indicating that the Americans no longer want to take the bait, and this is the most painful signal. --- Is the liquidity slowdown? I think they are waiting for a new narrative to take over, is Asian capital ready to step in? --- A net outflow of 420 million isn't much, but the attitude shift is too quick, which is a bit alarming. --- So is the bubble about to burst or is it just a shakeout? That’s the real question. --- Institutional investors vote with their feet, while retail investors are still riding the wave of sentiment; the gap in outlook is too big. --- Where is the next influx? The US is no longer buying, can Asia step up? That’s the real bet for 2026. --- How long will the capital outflow last? Is it short-term avoidance or a structural shift? The two outcomes are very different. --- When the tide recedes, true gold is revealed. Wouldn't it be great if it were that simple? Usually, it’s bloodshed. --- Money from compliant channels is flowing out, so what is DeFi doing?

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