Why are there always countless precise predictions about whether Ethereum can break the 10,000 USD mark? Honestly, I hear similar questions every week, and the obsession with the round number of $10,000 shows how hooked many investors are on these forecasts.

**Breaking Down the Tricks Behind the Predictions**

The so-called "price-accurate" analysis boils down to two tactics. One is rigidly applying historical data—if the last bull run increased by 500%, then this one is copied and pasted to also increase by 500%, as if the market is a programmable machine. The other, more covert approach—using sophisticated concepts like Fibonacci sequences and golden ratios, drawing a few elegant trend lines, and confidently claiming "it will definitely break through." But these analyses ignore a fundamental issue: Federal Reserve policy shifts, sudden regulatory actions, technological innovations from competitors—these real market drivers can't be predicted by any technical indicator. My five years of experience trading on exchanges tells me that reliable traders focus on capital flows and market trend reversals, never trying to attract attention with a specific high price target.

**Price Rise ≠ Account Profitability**

Here's an even more sobering truth: even if Ethereum truly reaches the 10,000 USD mark, it doesn't mean you'll make money. I've seen too many retail investors leverage heavily just because a prediction says it will break 10,000 USD—using 10x, 20x, or even higher leverage—only for the price to swing over 30%, leading to liquidation. Some people think $4,000 is too expensive, start chasing at $7,000, and end up buying at the top. Market gains and losses depend on timing, risk management, and psychological resilience, not whether a certain number is achieved.

In trading mainstream coins like Ethereum, the real danger often comes from over-trusting a single prediction. The market is always far more complex than anyone's imagination.