2026-01-01 14:21:44

Ethereum has been fluctuating around $2,980 in the past couple of days. On the surface, it seems calm, but if you delve into on-chain data and the futures market, you can sense the undercurrents. At the start of the new year, the direction may soon be decided.

Let's first discuss the two most critical price points — these will determine whether there will be a big move next.

If it breaks downward, $2,900 is a key threshold. Technically, this is a support level, and psychologically as well. Once broken, it could trigger a liquidation of about $784 million in long positions, potentially leading to a sharp decline. Conversely, looking upward, $3,100 is a recent strong resistance level. If it can break through, it could trigger a liquidation of $923 million in short positions, indicating a short covering rally.

What is the current market situation? Let's look at several dimensions —

The price is around 2983, oscillating within the 2800 to 3000 range. Market sentiment is extremely fearful, with the greed index at just 21, which is usually a signal. On-chain activity is actually quite good, with daily transaction counts hitting a new high of 2.2 million, and Gas fees are ridiculously low, averaging only $0.17, indicating healthy network operation. On the capital side, there is some pressure — spot ETF saw a net outflow of $72.06 million yesterday, suggesting short-term institutional profit-taking. Last quarter, it fell 28.28%, and many risks have already been released.

Based on these observations, there are two possible strategies —

The first is bullish. Wait for the price to confirm a breakout above the $3,000 integer level, then enter after it stabilizes, targeting above $3,100. This scenario is best confirmed with on-chain data, such as increased whale activity or trading volume. The second is aggressive shorting. If it breaks below $2,900, there may be little support below, so caution is needed.

At this point in time, market polarization is particularly obvious. Both bulls and bears are holding back, waiting to see who will break the deadlock first.

ETH0.41%

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ZKProofster

· 4h ago

technically speaking, the on-chain data tells a different story than the price action here... that 220M txn daily spike is interesting but gas at 0.17 feels more like network bloat than actual conviction. also ngl the etf outflows + that fear gauge combo is exactly when ppl get rekt chasing breakouts, so... careful out there

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TokenRationEater

· 4h ago

Greed Index 21, this wave is indeed extremely fearful... --- Wait, over 7.84 billion in liquidations? If that really crashes down, who will take the buy-in... --- The 3000 integer level is the life and death line. Let's see if we can hold above it today. --- Spot ETF net outflow of 72.06 million, institutions are really fleeing, it's exhausting. --- If it breaks 2900, I'll admit defeat. Anyway, the 28% drop pit is already here, I don't want to dig into it anymore. --- On-chain activity is actually reaching a new high, this signal is a bit contradictory... --- Just waiting for the short squeeze moment, what will it look like then? --- To put it simply, it's still a gamble. The 923 million in short positions being liquidated just depends on who triggers it first. --- Gas fee is only 0.17, what’s the use of a healthy network, prices are still suffocating downward. --- Both bulls and bears are waiting for a breakthrough, it feels like waiting for a fuse to be ignited.

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liquidation_surfer

· 4h ago

Greed Index is only 21? That's a bottom signal, why are there still people willing to short? Breaking 2900 and then plummeting rapidly, sounds like scare tactics. Institutions are reducing their positions, retail investors are still bottom-fishing, this is the fate of retail traders. 9.23 billion in short positions liquidated, can it cause any movement? The entire 2023 has been a loss, and now they still dare to go all-in? Crazy. On-chain activity hits a new high, indicating big players are secretly positioning, small investors simply can't see through. If 2900 can't hold, I wouldn't be surprised if it drops another 1000 points to the bottom. ETF net outflows indicate institutions are fleeing, retail investors are taking the hits, this buy-sell is doomed to lose. Cannot break through 3100 at all, another suppression. Wait, 2.2 million trades hitting a new high? Feels like a prelude to chopping the leeks.

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IntrovertMetaverse

· 4h ago

Greed Index at 21 is really incredible; at such times, it's easier to catch the bottom --- Wait until the 3000 level breaks and stabilizes before entering, don't chase the high, brother --- The liquidation amount of 7.84 billion is still hanging there; this wave is indeed quite intense --- ETF outflows are the real signal; if institutions have already left, why are we still adding positions? --- On-chain, 2.2 million transactions, Gas fees are so cheap, the network is actually fine --- Breaking below 2900 without support sounds terrifying; wait for the signal before taking action --- Is the market just this dead, or am I the only one feeling anxious? --- Both sides are waiting; it seems whoever breaks the deadlock first will win --- Is it too early to go long now? Let the bullets fly a bit more --- When fear is this high, it's often an opportunity, but it also risks being crushed

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