Ladies and gentlemen, I want to discuss from a macro perspective the upcoming trouble—the impact on global finances in 2026. This is not speculation; it’s already embedded in the data.

**The Debt Frenzy’s Bill Is Coming Due**

Over the past decade, especially the US government, has been borrowing heavily in an environment of near-zero interest rates. There’s nothing inherently wrong with that, but the problem is—there’s no such thing as a free lunch. By 2026, that batch of cheap debt will mature on a large scale. The US will need to handle approximately $1.95 trillion in deficits while refinancing $2.3 trillion in debt.

A simple calculation: the interest on previous borrowings might have been below 2%, but now the cost of new debt issuance has skyrocketed to 4% or higher. What does this mean? An additional hundreds of billions of dollars in interest payments each year, directly squeezing key expenditures like healthcare and infrastructure. It’s like a credit card being maxed out, and suddenly the bank calls to raise the interest rate—days of borrowing from Peter to pay Paul are coming to an end.

**Interest Costs Are Eating Up the Entire Budget**

The US government’s annual interest expenditure has already approached $1 trillion, accounting for about 35% of federal revenue. If interest rates continue to rise, by around 2030, just paying interest could surpass total spending on defense and social security combined.

The most insidious part is a vicious cycle: more debt → greater refinancing pressure → higher interest rates → fiscal strain → forced to issue more debt. Once this spiral accelerates, even if the central bank wants to intervene, it will be powerless. After all, the Fed itself is stuck—cutting rates risks igniting inflation, raising rates risks crashing the economy, caught in a dilemma.

**Why the Crypto Market Should Pay Attention**

This dramatic shift in global liquidity environment has profound implications for digital assets. When government finances tighten and central bank policies become more uncertain, capital will seek new safe havens and growth opportunities—this has always been the case historically. Debt crises often serve as windows for the crypto market to gain attention and capital inflows. Currently, the volatility of privacy coins and mainstream cryptocurrencies is actually pricing in these expectations in advance.

In the next two years, the key isn’t whether a certain coin will rise or fall, but understanding the macro logic behind it. Once the global fiscal storm truly hits, the rules of the game will change fundamentally.