Seeing someone in the group promoting "Ethereum must hit $10,000 in 2026," I have to be honest: this is not some secret to wealth, just a routine to harvest retail investors.

Why do I say that? Because I’ve been in this space for 7 years, experienced 3 bull and bear cycles, and seen too many of these predictions end up as jokes. Today, I’ll break down those "guaranteed rise" tricks.

**First Trick: The History Repeater**

You’ve probably heard this argument—"Ethereum rose 8 times in the last bull market, so this time it should double again to hit $10,000." Sounds convincing, right? But were 2021 and now the same? Not at all. Back then, spot ETFs hadn’t appeared, Layer 2 was still obscure, and the real competitor was a half-dead EOS. Now? Public chains like Solana and Aptos are eyeing users fiercely, and Layer 2 fees are ten times cheaper than the Ethereum mainnet. Do you still want to use history as a template? That’s called self-deception.

**Second Trick: Technical Indicator Fortune-telling**

Then there are those drawing candlestick charts, saying "Break above 6000 resistance, then look for Fibonacci extension to 10,000." Not that technical analysis is useless; it does have some reference value. The problem is— it can’t predict black swan events! A sudden policy change by the Fed, a country implementing new regulations, or a technical vulnerability in Ethereum itself—these can turn those so-called "target levels" into junk. No matter how perfect technical indicators are, they only reflect current trends and can’t change external variables.

**Third Trick: The Institution Influx Myth**

The last common claim is "Wall Street money has come in, so it must be driven to 10,000." Think about it—are they here to do charity? Institutions quietly build positions at low cost, and when retail investors believe these predictions and chase high, they dump the market. That’s Wall Street’s routine operation, always has been.

The scariest part isn’t that analysts are wrong, but that some people actually take these as the basis for their investment decisions. Don’t let those "guaranteed rise" theories hijack your rationality; the crypto market is full of variables. Think more about risks, less about quick riches—that’s the way to survive longer in this market.