#预测市场 Prediction markets are really amazing 🤔 I just saw a market on Kalshi about "What will be the best AI by the end of 2025," and Gemini's winning probability has surprisingly risen to 86%! Meanwhile, ChatGPT only has an 8% chance...

The contrast is just too big, right? I remember at the beginning of the year, ChatGPT was leading (with a 41% probability), so how did it get overtaken so much in just half a year? 😅 Gemini shot up from 30% directly to 86%, there must have been some major event behind this.

The craziest part is that the trading volume for this market has already reached $14.08 million, which shows that quite a few people are actually betting real money on the future of AI. And the final settlement will be based on the LM Arena leaderboard, so these predictions are not just made up out of thin air.

Suddenly realizing that prediction markets might be more interesting than I initially thought? It’s not just pure gambling; it feels more like a collective judgment about the future. Can someone give a beginner a quick explanation of how prediction market trading works? What should participants pay attention to? 🙋