Jumping into a trade when the catalyst isn't fully mapped out? Here's what most traders overlook—you're not trading in a vacuum.

Everyone's fixated on *why* the move should happen. The timing angle. The magnitude play. But the real question few ask: **who are you actually taking the position from?**

Think about it. Those existing holders already riding the same thesis? They've got skin in the game before you. They're sitting with history, conviction, and most importantly—exit points already planned. Some got in cheap. Some got in late and desperate. The mix matters.

When you buy unknowns with unclear catalysts, you're essentially betting against whoever's ready to sell. Are they taking profits after a solid run? Cutting losses before worse news drops? Or just rotating to something hotter?

The catalyst thesis gets all the attention. But understanding your counterparty's likely motivations? That's the edge most traders leave on the table.