#通货膨胀 The Federal Reserve's rate cut path is gradually becoming clearer, but the reality is more complex than expected. According to the latest signals, achieving significant rate cuts before 2026 requires meeting one of three conditions: sustained decline in inflation, deterioration of the labor market, or personnel changes at the Federal Reserve. Currently, the first two are highly uncertain—inflation remains above target, and while the labor market has cooled, it has not reached a critical level. This suggests that market expectations for "rapid rate cuts" may be overly optimistic.

From an on-chain funding perspective, such policy deadlock often triggers adjustments in institutional holdings. It is recommended to closely monitor the movements of large whale wallets, especially the inflow and outflow patterns of stablecoins—if institutions start accumulating stablecoins, it indicates they are preparing for high volatility. Also, keep an eye on the liquidity conditions of mainstream exchanges, as policy uncertainty typically boosts demand for safe-haven assets.

Ongoing pressure from Trump remains a variable. Although the Federal Reserve's "moat" appears solid, if personnel changes truly occur in 2026, it will signal the market to reprice accordingly. Currently, it’s still an observation phase, but you can start positioning related contracts to hedge against policy risks.