#比特币与黄金战争 Spot gold has already surged to $4,500 per ounce at the beginning of the year. Looking at the third bull market that started in 2015, it doesn't seem so simple. What's interesting is that domestic gold stocks haven't kept up much—everyone's busy watching AI and paying little attention to gold.

Geopolitical tensions flare up from time to time, coupled with the faint AI bubble in the US stock market depressing risk assets. Meanwhile, the Fed is cutting rates while Japan is raising them—this double whammy has left the dollar unable to avoid depreciation. Will gold hit new highs in 2026? I think the probability is quite high.

Looking back at the two major gold rallies, the patterns are the same: a weakening dollar, central bank liquidity injections, and some economic issues. All three are present in 2026. Trump is shouting about pushing rates below 1% (and some actually believe it), and institutions generally predict the Fed will raise rates to between 2.75% and 3.00% by September. On the other hand, Japan is raising rates to 0.75%, something unseen in 30 years. With this combination of factors, it's no wonder the USD exchange rate is falling.

The economic news isn't much better—unemployment has jumped to 4.6%, and the AI sector is cooling off, with growth momentum clearly waning. At such times, gold's safe-haven attributes become more apparent, and many institutions have already recognized this. JPMorgan has set a target price of $5,000, Morgan Stanley expects to reach $4,800 in Q4, and giants like Citibank and UBS are increasing their gold holdings.

On the industry front, leading companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are aggressively acquiring gold mining assets worldwide. Domestically, large deposits like Dadonggou and Wangu have been confirmed, with production capacity doubling repeatedly.

The performance of the A-share gold sector clearly illustrates this. Zijin Mining and Chifeng Gold, with their soaring production, have driven gold prices up, achieving roughly a tenfold increase, far outpacing the sector average. Looking at valuations now, there's still plenty of room for gold stocks, as their earnings potential has just begun to be unleashed.

What about your view? Will gold prices break through $5,000 in 2026? Or do you prefer the certainty of spot gold, or are you more optimistic about the leverage effect of gold concept stocks?