Soybeans Pressing Higher on Fresh China Demand Signal

Soybean futures are holding onto gains of 3 to 4 cents this week, driven by confirmed export activity to China. The national average cash soybean price has climbed 3 3/4 cents to settle at $10.62 3/4, while soybean meal futures slipped $2.50 to reach $2.70. Bean oil futures, meanwhile, surged 83 to 97 points higher on the session. Contract deliveries for December soybean meal hit 199 on first notice day, with 447 notices issued against bean oil contracts.

USDA Signals Increased Export Momentum

The Department of Agriculture reported a private export sale of 312,000 metric tons to China this morning, marking a meaningful shift in purchasing patterns. For the week ending October 16, total soybean export sales reached 1.1 million metric tons—the first week to surpass the 1 MMT threshold this marketing year. This represented a 41.2% jump from the previous week, though volumes remain 56.9% below the comparable period last year.

Until this week, China had not participated in any soybean purchases, making today’s transaction a notable development for market sentiment. Soybean meal sales tallied 543,119 MT for the same reporting period, showing improvement from prior week activity. Bean oil exports reached 19,133 MT during the week of October 16.

Market Expectations and Future Supply Picture

Traders are eyeing next Monday’s weekly export report with varied expectations. Analysts are forecasting soybean sales in the 0.6 to 1.6 MMT range, with soybean meal anticipated between 50,000 and 500,000 MT, and bean oil sales projected at 5,000 to 25,000 MT.

On the supply side, Agroconsult has pegged Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop at 178.1 MMT, representing a 6 MMT increase compared to last year’s harvest. This production estimate adds another layer to the global supply calculus as market participants digest Chinese demand signals.

Current Futures Pricing

January 2026 soybeans are trading at $11.35 1/2, up 4 cents from the previous session. Nearby cash prices hold at $10.62 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents. March 2026 contracts are at $11.44 1/4, advancing 3 1/2 cents, while May 2026 soybeans have moved to $11.54, also up 3 1/2 cents. These gains suggest market participants are building in expectations for sustained demand as China resumes purchasing activity.