#降息预期 The rate cut expectation continues to weaken. The probability of pausing rate cuts in January has risen to 78%, up from 70% before the FOMC decision, which is a signal worth noting.

Breaking down the data: the probability of maintaining the current interest rate in January is 73.4%, while the probability of a rate cut is only 26.6%. By March, the cumulative probability of a 25bp rate cut is only 39.4%, with a majority of 53.4% expecting no change. FOMC internal disagreements are escalating, and the subsequent path is clearly becoming more conservative.

From an on-chain perspective, this means that the liquidity easing expectations are being re-priced. In the short term, the risk assets face increased pressure and potential adjustment. It is necessary to closely monitor the movements of whale addresses—if large amounts of funds start flowing out of exchanges, or long-term holders begin reducing their positions, it will be a clear risk signal.

It is recommended to pay attention to the on-chain contract data over the next week, especially the trading patterns of large holders, as this will better reflect the true capital attitude than public sentiment fluctuations.