Lean Hog Futures Slip as Market Faces Downward Pressure

Tuesday brought a wave of selling across hog futures markets, with lean hog contracts retreating 67 cents to settle at $1.40. The broader weakness was reflected across multiple price benchmarks, as USDA's national base hog price dropped 58 cents from Monday's close to $75.56. Meanwhile, the CME Lean Hog Index declined sharply by 94 cents on November 14, finishing the session at $87.00.

The weakness extended to processed products as well. USDA's pork carcass cutout value fell $1.62 to $95.39 per cwt in the Tuesday evening report. Within the cutout, ham primals led the decline with a significant $3.99 drop, while picnic and belly cuts managed to post modest gains—offering limited support to an otherwise bearish session.

On the supply side, federally inspected hog slaughter came in at 494,000 head for Tuesday, bringing the week-to-date total to 988,000 head. This volume represents 34,000 head above the prior week and 8,638 head higher compared to the same period last year, adding to supply concerns that may be weighing on prices.

Looking ahead at the contract curve, December 25 hogs closed at $77.90, down $0.675 from the previous settlement. February 26 contracts ended at $78.025, posting a steeper loss of $1.40. April 26 hogs also reflected weakness, settling at $81.625, down $1.40 as well. The consistent declines across multiple expirations suggest that market participants are reassessing near and intermediate-term hog price expectations.