Is Uranium's Boom Turning Cameco Into the Next Big Thing in Energy?

The Dramatic Turnaround: From Decade-Long Slump to 55% 2025 Rally

Cameco (NYSE: CCJ), the world’s second-largest uranium producer, has experienced one of the most striking reversals in the mining sector. After a 10-year struggle from 2011 to 2021, the company’s trajectory shifted dramatically. Its stock climbed to a record high of $106.91 on October 28—a stunning 320% surge over the preceding four years—before settling at $79, maintaining a 55% year-to-date advance that’s capturing investor attention as a potential breakout opportunity in nuclear energy.

The tale of Cameco’s struggles is well-documented: Fukushima triggered global nuclear hesitation, COVID-19 suspended mining operations, and a weak Canadian dollar squeezed margins. Revenue collapsed from $2.4 billion in 2011 to just $1.2 billion by 2021. Yet the narrative reversed when uranium prices skyrocketed from $35 in 2020 to $72.63 in 2024, fueled by artificial intelligence’s enormous power demands, cloud infrastructure expansion, and geopolitical tensions in uranium-rich territories. By 2024, Cameco’s annual revenue had nearly recovered to $2.3 billion.

From Mining-Only Player to Integrated Nuclear Powerhouse

What makes Cameco stand out isn’t just benefiting from higher commodity prices—it’s fundamentally reshaping its business architecture. The company operates uranium mines across Canada, the U.S., and Kazakhstan, controlling roughly 17% of global uranium extraction, placing it firmly second behind Kazakhstan’s Kazatomprom.

The strategic transformation accelerated in 2021 when Cameco deepened its commitment to Global Laser Enrichment (GLE), increasing ownership from 24% to 49% in its joint venture with Silex. This laser-based uranium enrichment technology allows Cameco to move beyond raw mining toward becoming a fully integrated nuclear fuel supplier—a critical competitive advantage.

More boldly, Cameco partnered with Brookfield Asset Management in 2023 to acquire Westinghouse Electric, securing a 49% stake in the nuclear power plant design and construction specialist. This addition transforms Cameco into a diversified nuclear energy ecosystem player rather than a cyclical commodity miner, potentially stabilizing returns while maintaining explosive upside from sector expansion.

The Mathematical Case: Revenue Growth Meets Earnings Explosion

Looking ahead to 2025, Cameco projects uranium revenue will rise 8% as it delivers between 31 to 34 million pounds at an average realized price around $87 per pound—notably above uranium’s current $80 spot price. Recent production guidance reductions, stemming from ground-freezing delays at McArthur River, mirror cuts across the industry at Kazatomprom and competitors, paradoxically supporting prices by tightening supply.

Wall Street’s growth forecasts are particularly intriguing: analysts anticipate a compound annual growth rate of 8% for revenue between 2024 and 2027, but earnings per share growth could explode at a 90% CAGR. This disparity reflects expanding margins, the maturation of GLE’s enrichment operations, and Westinghouse’s contribution.

Secular Forces Powering Long-Term Demand

The International Atomic Energy Agency projects nuclear generating capacity could increase 2.5 times by 2050 as governments recommit to low-carbon power. AI and cloud data centers require reliable baseload electricity, making nuclear attractive. Emerging reactor designs—small modular reactors (SMRs) and microreactors—promise easier deployment in remote or industrial locations, potentially unlocking entirely new markets.

Valuation Reality Check

At 52 times forward earnings, Cameco commands a premium valuation, yet it remains in the nascent phase of its current growth cycle. The company’s sensitivity to nuclear incidents or pandemic-scale disruptions remains, and its inherent cyclicality could create volatility. However, the combination of structural demand tailwinds, technological diversification through GLE and Westinghouse, and multiple years of double-digit growth potential suggests the stock could genuinely evolve into the next significant winner for long-term, risk-tolerant investors positioned for the nuclear renaissance.