#降息预期 Bitcoin stabilizing above $80,000 and the 200-day moving average slope turning positive are good signals. The market has almost fully digested the Federal Reserve's third consecutive rate cut, and the short-term bullish structure has indeed been restored.

However, there's a detail worth noting — institutions have been continuously increasing their holdings (accumulating 42,000 coins since December), while retail investors are actually reducing their holdings. This means the upward momentum's potential depends largely on future macro expectations. The Federal Reserve has hinted at only one rate cut next year, adding uncertainty to the market, and the Christmas rally isn't as certain either.

From a follow-trading perspective, aggressive traders should be more cautious now. I've been observing several medium-risk traders whose strategy is to prepare for phased entries and stop-loss plans before reaching the key resistance level at the 52-week high, rather than going all-in at once. This approach is more prudent — given the uncertainty, reducing the size of each position, and choosing multiple traders with complementary styles to diversify risk is more rational than gambling on a single move.

In practice, this period actually tests traders' risk management skills. The ones who can maintain discipline during price increases are the ones truly worth following.