Looking at Bitcoin's recent trend, I find it a bit puzzling.

The Bank of Japan announced yesterday a 25 basis point rate hike to 0.75%, the highest in thirty years. Logically, such a major news should cause a sell-off, but what happened? Bitcoin steadily stayed above $88,000, and even rebounded by over $3,900 intraday.

Interesting, right? I have a friend who cleared his positions a few days ago waiting for a pullback. Now he's panicking and calling me to ask if he missed some big event. The logic behind this isn't that complicated; it's just that most people haven't thought it through.

**Why do bad news sometimes push prices up? The art of expectation management**

The most cunning thing about the market is right here: when everyone is waiting for something to happen, the moment it actually occurs often fails to cause a reaction.

Before this rate hike, the market's probability prediction for a rate increase reached 98%—almost no one doubted it. At this point, smart money had already moved. BTC fell from its high before the hike to around $84,418, effectively digesting the bad news in advance. Do you know what that means? When bad news is fully priced in, it can turn into good news.

When the rate hike news actually lands, the market has already been waiting for a reversal. It's like you know it will rain tomorrow, so you prepare your umbrella today. When it actually rains, you might even feel bored—Bitcoin's liquidity behavior is exactly this principle.

The rate hike itself isn't the problem; the issue is how the market perceives the timing and extent of this event. When expectations and reality align perfectly, that's often the start of a reversal.