Mysterious prophecy reappears: The 4chan trader who accurately predicted the October high confidently claims Bitcoin will surge to $250,000 by 2026

Recently, an anonymous 4chan trader who accurately predicted in December 2023 that Bitcoin would reach a cycle top on October 6, 2025, has spoken again, offering an even more aggressive new forecast: Bitcoin will rise to $250,000 in 2026. This prediction comes at a highly delicate time: currently, multiple short-term technical indicators and on-chain data are all showing a bearish trend, and market sentiment is becoming cautious. This forecast not only challenges the market’s short-term bearish consensus but also rekindles the core debate over whether Bitcoin’s long-term supercycle remains valid. This “prophecy versus data” confrontation once again reveals the profound contradiction between long-term narratives and short-term volatility in the Bitcoin market.

Legendary Prophecy Review: Why Can the Time Cycle Model Accurately “Pinpoint” Time?

In the world of cryptocurrencies, price predictions are like sandcastles on the beach—most traces are quickly erased by market waves. However, a few predictions that withstand the test of time often become legendary. The first prophecy by this anonymous 4chan trader is such a rare case. Going back to December 2023, Bitcoin was slowly recovering from the depths of the previous bear market, with market focus scattered and complex. This anonymous trader did not focus on specific prices but proposed a purely historical symmetry-based “Time Cycle Model”.

The core logic of this model is simple yet bold: it observes that Bitcoin’s history exhibits an approximate fixed rhythm—about 1,064 days from bear market lows to cycle highs, followed by roughly 364 days of decline. Based on this, he projected the next all-time high to occur on October 6, 2025. The subsequent market movements gave this prediction remarkable weight: Bitcoin indeed peaked in early October 2025 and then experienced a sharp decline within days. This near “clocked” precision made an anonymous online post stand out from the noise and be regarded as an “oracle.”

It is this irrefutable “record” that casts a significant aura over his latest prediction of $250,000. In his recent analysis, the trader believes that the overall market structure has not been broken by this correction. The current dip is seen as a “reset phase” before a new expansion, and 2026 is marked as the window for the next peak. He extends the forecast framework from “time” to “time and price,” still firmly believing in the rhythm of historical cycles. This approach, based on historical patterns, sharply contrasts with technical analysis that relies on real-time data, and it is precisely this divergence that sparks intense debate in the current weak market.

Harsh Reality: Why Do Current Market Data Generally Signal “Yellow Lights”?

If one only listens to this anonymous prophet, they might be ready for a new violent bull run. But turning to the real market data reveals a different story—one of coldness. Multiple short-term indicators simultaneously flash “yellow lights,” painting a cautious picture that is the opposite of the $25 million bold claim.

First, from the perspective of market sentiment and momentum, the Bitcoin Composite Market Index (BCMI) has fallen from high levels. Historically, similar levels often correspond to late-cycle phases. Additionally, after the October peak, Bitcoin’s price repeatedly failed to reclaim key psychological levels, indicating a significant weakening of buying momentum. Market sentiment has shifted from greed to watchfulness or even fear.

Second, on-chain signals are more direct. The Net New Buyer Activity indicator, which measures the influx of fresh market participants, has sharply slowed from early 2025’s frenzy high. Historically, such demand slowdown phenomena appeared clearly before the peaks of the 2017 and 2021 bull markets, often serving as early signs of waning capital inflow and momentum shifts.

Finally, from a traditional technical analysis perspective, chart patterns also look bleak. Persistent trading below key resistance levels and weakening of multiple momentum indicators form a classic bearish technical structure. Taken together, these short-term signals suggest that the market is at a fragile turning point from rally to decline, and caution and defense should be the main themes now. This is why the optimistic forecast from the anonymous trader sounds so “jarring” and out of place to professional analysts.

Deep Market Signal Analysis: The Argument Matrix of Bulls and Bears

The current market is at a crossroads of fierce debate between bullish and bearish views. From the perspective of market sentiment and momentum, bears point out that BCMI has fallen from high levels, often indicating a late-stage cycle, with prices unable to effectively reclaim key psychological resistance zones. Conversely, bulls or cycle theorists argue that history shows the strongest upward phases often begin when widespread skepticism prevails, not when everyone is optimistic.

On on-chain demand, bearish signals show that net new buyer activity has significantly slowed since early 2025, with insufficient new capital entering. However, bullish advocates interpret this as a demand reset within the bull cycle, clearing out weak hands and accumulating energy for a parabolic surge.

Technically, short-term charts indeed show bearish formations that excite bears, increasing downside risks. But long-term cycle supporters remind us not to be misled by short-term patterns and to focus on the integrity of the long-term structure. Past bull markets have often experienced deep corrections lasting months, which are almost “standard moves.”

Regarding macro narratives, short-term speculative interest has cooled, and there is a lack of new stimulating topics. But the long-term positive factors remain: Bitcoin’s supply growth continues to be programmatically compressed after halving, and institutional infrastructure such as spot ETFs and blockchain integrations are becoming embedded in traditional finance, paving the way for future capital inflows—even if current flows are sparse. The anonymous trader’s forecast fundamentally discounts these network effects and the maturity of financial infrastructure.

History also offers inspiring precedents: each previous bull run was punctuated by months-long mid-term corrections, which served as “resets” that cleared out weak hands and built energy for the final push to the top. Today’s market pessimism, from a cycle theory perspective, may be a necessary and healthy “mid-season break.” While the market focuses on immediate anxieties, these cycle advocates look further ahead to horizons written by these fundamental forces.

Quantum Threat: An Overlooked Long-term Concern Ignored by Bullish Predictions

Amid the heated discussion of price cycles, a long-term threat that could reshape all crypto fundamentals is quietly approaching—Quantum Computing. Although the anonymous trader’s models do not include this variable, it is undoubtedly a “Damocles sword” hanging over the entire crypto space. Theoretically, quantum computers could crack current elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) protecting assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, meaning that once practical quantum computers emerge, the cryptographic foundations of cryptocurrencies could be instantly shattered.

This threat has moved from theoretical exploration to practical response. Academia and industry are actively seeking solutions. For example, Ethereum has incorporated post-quantum cryptography into its long-term roadmap, testing quantum-resistant algorithms on layer 2 networks. The Solana Foundation has partnered with security firms to prototype post-quantum signature schemes. Some emerging chains like Aptos have proposed account-layer support for quantum-resistant signatures.

However, for Bitcoin, upgrading presents enormous challenges. Community governance is slow, and any major protocol change could take years (some estimate 5–10 years) with difficult consensus. Additionally, early addresses—including possibly the 1.7 million bitcoins belonging to Satoshi—have exposed their public keys on-chain, making them vulnerable to quantum attacks. Even if upgrades succeed, handling these “zombie coins” that may remain unclaimed will raise significant ethical and practical issues.

Therefore, the grand prophecy of this 4chan trader about a 2026 bull market depends not only on economic cycles and adoption curves but also on the assumption that the security of crypto’s foundational cryptography can withstand the quantum race. The progress of this “quantum defense war” will be a more critical factor than any short-term price fluctuation, determining the industry’s survival or demise.

Insights and Actions: How Should Investors View This Prophecy?

This duel between the anonymous prophet and cold data ultimately raises a question for every market participant: what should we believe? This debate itself reveals one of the classic dilemmas in Bitcoin investing and offers different action templates for investors with different styles.

For long-term believers and cycle traders, the core takeaway is reaffirming the importance of “long-termism.” Bitcoin’s market is known for its strong cyclicality, but each cycle is not a simple repetition; the forces driving lows and highs are constantly evolving. Successful cycle traders tend to position during the “reset phase” when fear dominates, rather than chasing at FOMO peaks. The current divergence and pessimism may be precisely the moment to test and practice this principle.

For risk-averse investors, now is a good time to review positions and strategies. Deteriorating short-term indicators objectively suggest downside risks. A prudent approach might be to avoid excessive leverage and prepare for further possible corrections. Viewing the anonymous prophecy as an interesting possibility rather than a direct investment signal is key to risk control.

In any case, this event once again underscores Bitcoin’s unique charm: it never has a single dominant narrative. Short-term volatility, long-term stories, technological evolution, macro risks (like quantum computing)—these multiple threads intertwine and drive price movements. The courage of that anonymous trader lies in attempting to sketch one of the grandest narratives. As investors, a wise approach may be to listen to these distant stories while remaining aware of the hurdles beneath our feet, finding our own rhythm amid the market’s polyphony. After all, in the world of Bitcoin, the only constant is change itself and humanity’s endless imagination for the next peak.